China's birth rate has been in decline since 2017, despite easing of the 'one-child policy' in order to avert an incoming demographic crisis.
According to Soumya Kanti Ghosh, chief economic advisor of the State Bank of India group, a 50 bps rate cut is a possibility, but 25 bps is more likely.
Currently, banks follow system of internal benchmarks, including Prime Lending Rate, Benchmark Prime Lending Rate, Base rate and Marginal Cost of Funds based Lending Rate.
The poll of over 30 economists, taken in the past week, showed Asia's third largest economy will expand 7.8 percent in the fiscal year ending March 2017.
Rumours in the bureaucracy on his successor include the names of Sajjid Chinoy of JP Morgan, Rathin Roy of the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, Neelkanth Mishra of Credit Suisse and the principal economic advisor, Sanjeev Sanyal.
Backloading the government's borrowing programme suggests the finance ministry's confidence in better revenue numbers, says A K Bhattacharya.
Despite the relaxation of the one-child policy in 2016, the number of live births per 1,000 people fell to a record low of 10.48 in 2019, down from 10.94 in 2018.
High frequency indicators suggest that a growth recovery is underway, but very tentatively and with weak legs, says Saugata Bhattacharya.
Seeking to dispel possible notions of the RBI not having done enough by opting for a pause for the second consecutive time, Das said the RBI has a wide dashboard of instruments beyond rates that can be deployed.
Says impact of crisis in China won't be as big here as in some other countries
Gold prices staged a smart rebound to surpass the psychologically important Rs 28,000 milestone.
At the World Bank Banga will be replacing David Malpass, a former Trump treasury official, reports axios.com. Malpass had already announced that he will resign by July, months ahead of his term expired. "Ajay is uniquely equipped to lead the World Bank at this critical moment in history," President Biden said in a statement. Banga, 63, currently serves as vice chairman at General Atlantic.
Will Arundhati Bhattacharya be the RBI's first woman governor? Or will Urjit Patel succeed Raghuram Rajanas RBI governor when his term ends on September 4?
There is also a lobby within the bureaucracy that wants to see Rajan's influence curtailed
The economy is gaining traction with gradual pick up in manufacturing activity and moderation in contraction of services, spurred by comfortable liquidity conditions, an RBI article on Tuesday said. Observing that the retreat of the second wave of coronavirus pandemic has been slow, the RBI in an article on the 'State of Economy' said, the aggregate demand conditions are buoyed by the release of pent-up demand post unlock, while the supply situation is improving with the monsoon catching up to its normal levels and sowing activity gaining pace. "Reaffirming the traction that the economy is gaining, the manufacturing activity is gradually turning around, while contraction in services has moderated.
The year 2014-15 could well go as one of long-pending financial sector reforms, expected to have a lasting impact.
High rates of such schemes deter banks from dropping borrowing rates - and thus lending rates
Heavy selling of the US dollar by banks and exporters in the face of renewed capital inflows predominantly kept sentiment highly buoyant
To cut interest rates, the central bank head has to open up a debate on inflation target revision.
The S&P BSE Sensex shed 119 points to close at 27,977 and the Nifty50 dropped 45 points to finish at 8,591.
Two members recommended bringing down the rate by 50 bps in the April policy.
The broader NSE Nifty closed 1.25 points, or 0.01 per cent down at 10,564.05.
Experts have started giving comments on provisions that the govt must make in Budget 2016-17.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said RBI and the government are in continuous dialogue and that relationship will continue.
The mismatch between industrialists' demand and account holders is because of inflation, Rajan said.
Since last month, the realty (down 23%), auto (down 16%) and finance (down 14%) indices have underperformed the market by falling over 13%, as against 8% decline in the benchmark indices
The bond market expects at least 25 basis points cut in the June 6 policy.
The wider Nifty hit a low of 10,033.35 before finishing at 10,044.10, down 74.15 points or 0.73 per cent.
RBI said inflation in the second half of the current fiscal is projected at 2.7-3.2%. It retained its GDP forecast for the current fiscal at 7.4%
"The poor will not suffer disproportionately due to bouts of sharp inflation, and the middle class will not see its savings eroded," Raghuram Rajan said.
'Trust your new governor,' Omkar Goswami advises RBI Deputy Governor Viral Acharya. 'Just because he is from the IAS and doesn't carry a PhD from a US university does not make him unsuitable for the task.' 'If anything, Das will pour oil on troubled waters, and save the RBI's reputation.'
For the first time, the value of card and mobile payments of Rs 10.57 trillion was more than ATM withdrawals of Rs 9.12 trillion in Q4 of fiscal 2019-20. In the months of lockdown, the gap may have widened further, but cash could be back in vogue when the situation normalises.
Central bank moves to infuse liquidity into bond market to help boost sentiment.
Equity markets will look for directions from global trends, ongoing quarterly earnings and investment patterns of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in a holiday-shortened week ahead and may encounter volatility amid the scheduled monthly derivatives expiry, according to analysts. Equity markets will remain closed on Wednesday on account of 'Republic Day'. "This week is a holiday-shortened one and it's going to be critical due to the list of events and data that are lined up.
Instead of a rate hike, or even a pause, there could be a window for the RBI for an interest rate cut
Raghuram Rajan speaks on the unscheduled rate cut.
Given that there are hundreds of players in the shadow banking space, it's hard to make a credible estimate of potential NPAs. That creates more scope for panic, says Devangshu Datta.
RBI lowered economic growth for the current fiscal to 6.9 per cent from the previously projected 7.1 per cent, but saw it bouncing back in a big way to 7.4 per cent in 2017-18.
Expressing serious concern over contraction in industrial output in November, India Inc called for immediate policy interventions, including a rate cut by RBI, to prevent job losses and boost demand.
Taking advantage of the RBI's different accounting year, the Centre had started demanding an interim dividend till the time the latter's final balance sheet is prepared (usually in August). To address this anomaly, an expert committee led by former RBI governor Bimal Jalan had recommended aligning the RBI's financial year with that of the government.
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